China unilaterally claims 90 percent of the waters in the SCS as its own, despite objections from other claimants. China does not even recognize the International Court of Arbitration's ruling that China has no basis to declare the SCS as its sovereign territory.
In such a context, if an armed conflict were to occur in the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the gateway to the Indian Ocean, would face a contingency, especially if the countries involved in the conflict used the strait as an arena for asymmetric warfare, as Iran has done in the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition to claimant states, US warships also conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, considering the waters to be international waters. As a result, tensions frequently arise between the US and China.
The potential for conflict also exists in the Taiwan Strait, as China considers the Republic of Taiwan not a sovereign state but part of China. This situation arose after the 1949 civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang, which ended in the defeat of the Kuomintang, which fled to the island of Taiwan, where it remains today.
If China launched a military operation to seize Taiwan, it would be a major disaster, as the US would not allow such an invasion to occur. The US has the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress, which stipulates that the US will assist Taiwan if it is attacked by another country.
If that were to happen, the Taiwan Strait would be blocked by China. Furthermore, the Strait of Malacca could also be blockaded by the US or China to gain tactical and strategic advantages.
Strategic Straits as a Means of War
In the Iran-US-Israel war last February-March, a strategically valuable strait was exploited as a strategic tool to gain a tactical advantage. Iran deliberately closed the Strait of Hormuz to force the US into a ceasefire.
The US-Iran-Israel war is a fourth-generation asymmetric warfare waged by Iran. In addition to closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran also used its proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis to fight on three different fronts.
On the other hand, the Iranian Armed Forces (Artesh), along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched numerous low-cost drones into Israel and US military bases in the Gulf states.
Iran's asymmetric warfare strategy has resulted in a global oil shortage, as 20 percent of its supply is blocked in Hormuz, while Iranian drones and missiles are able to drain expensive US-Israeli missiles.
This situation must be avoided and must not be allowed to occur in the Strait of Malacca. Therefore, strategic thinking is needed from countries in the region to safeguard the Strait of Malacca and avoid potential conflict by prioritizing multilateral and bilateral diplomacy to prevent armed conflict.
Jakarta, April 22, 2026.
