Prof Dr Marsetio
Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Navy 2012 - 2014
Professor of the Republic of Indonesia Defense University
The Strait of Malacca, like the Strait of Hormuz, is a strategic strait that, if subjected to an asymmetric conflict in the South China Sea, would cause economic complications for several countries. This is because the world's busiest strait carries 23.3 million barrels of oil per day, carried by tankers from various countries.
In 2024, 19,507 bulk tankers and 9,724 very large crude carriers (CLCCs) transited the Strait of Malacca. The strait is the lifeblood of the global economy. Approximately 25-30 percent of maritime trade passes through the strait, 80 percent of which is China's crude oil imports.
The industrialized nations of East Asia are heavily dependent on the Strait of Malacca, making it a significant contributor to the global economy.
The Strait of Malacca, which separates the Malay Peninsula from Sumatra, is approximately 930 km long, with its narrowest point being 38 km (24 miles) in the Philip Strait (Singapore), and its widest point being 250 km at the northwest tip of We Island, Sabang.
It is at this narrowest point that various problems can arise, including armed conflict, blockades, and shipping accidents.
Every year, the Strait of Malacca is navigated by 75,000 vessels of various types, meaning thousands of ships pass through it daily. If the strait experiences a contingency, these vessels cannot pass through, disrupting the supply of goods. This could lead to a crisis, as occurred in the Suez Canal in 2021.
The Suez Canal was paralyzed for a week after the 400-meter-long container ship, the MV Ever Given, ran aground, blocking the shipping lane. As a result, other vessels were unable to pass, disrupting logistics distribution flows from Asia to Europe and vice versa.
The paralysis of the Suez Canal was purely an accident, not asymmetric warfare. The situation would be more serious if the canal closure were due to war, as Iran did when it blockaded the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-US-Israel war.
South China Sea Conflict
A contingency in the Strait of Malacca could arise if potential conflicts in the South China Sea (SCS) or the Taiwan Strait spiral out of control and escalate into limited or open warfare between countries in the region. As is known, the SCS has overlapping claims involving China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, and Malaysia.
