General TNI (Ret) Prof Dr AM Hendropriyono
Head of Indonesia State Intelligence Agency 2001 – 2004
In strategic intelligence analysis, wars are rarely judged solely by the number of casualties or physical damage. Instead, the primary assessment relies on classic principles of war such as unity of command, centre of gravity, culmination point, and population morale.
If these indicators indicate that one side has lost the ability to continue military operations effectively, the war typically enters its terminal phase, a stage where fighting continues but its strategic direction is predictable.
In the context of the Israel–US conflict against Iran, several strategic indicators suggest that the conflict is likely to enter its final phase soon.
1. Destruction of the Command and Control System
In modern military theory, command and control (C2) is the nerve centre of military operations. Without an effective command structure, operational coordination becomes extremely difficult. When a war command centre is damaged or the top military leader can no longer effectively control troops, operational disorganization, a decline in troop discipline, and fragmentation of command at the field level typically result.
Numerous reports indicate that intensive airstrikes against Iranian military installations have targeted command centres, communications systems, and air defence networks, directly impacting the country's ability to coordinate military operations.¹
In the chaos of war, emerging leaders often face difficulties quickly re-establishing discipline and command structures.
- Strategic Counterattacks Are Difficult to Implement
Strategic counterattacks can only be effective if the attacked country has a stable command system, intact military communications lines, and the ability to coordinate between units.
