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Strategic Intelligence Estimates (Israel–US War Against Iran Heading into Final Phase)

Jumat, 6 Maret 2026 | 11:47 WIB
AM Hendropriyono saat menyampaikan pidato di Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani. (Dok. Kilat)

When both sides reach a point where the costs of war are too high, military damage is significant, and international pressure is mounting, the war typically moves toward negotiations or a ceasefire.

In the context of the Israel-Iran conflict, international pressure to avoid broader regional escalation is also a significant factor driving the search for a diplomatic solution.⁵

 

6.⁠ ⁠Intelligence Indicators That the War Is Nearing Its End

Strategic intelligence analysis has identified several indicators that suggest a war is nearing its end, including the degradation of command and control systems, air dominance by one side, decreased coordination of military operations, increasing economic and social pressure, and heightened international diplomatic pressure.

If these indicators appear simultaneously, the conflict is likely moving toward a de-escalation phase.

 

Conclusion

Based on these strategic indicators, it can be predicted that the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran is likely to enter the final phase of overt military operations.

However, the end of the conventional war phase does not necessarily mean the end of the conflict entirely. In many cases, the conflict may continue in the form of proxy wars, asymmetric operations, and political and economic pressure.

Therefore, the primary challenge for the international community is to ensure that the cessation of hostilities is not merely temporary, but truly paves the way for regional stability and sustainable peace.

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