By A.M. Hendropriyono
Head of the State Intelligence Agency (BIN) 2001-2004
Social revolution has always been an instrument of radical change in the history of civilization. Since the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917, the world has witnessed how the power of ideology, vanguard parties, and the suffering of marginalized people can be mobilized into a political force that shakes the old order.
Lenin, with his Marxism-Leninism, successfully overthrew Tsarist power and established a proletarian state. However, in the 21st century, a similar pattern has reappeared in a different form: Western capitalism employs a strategy known in the intelligence world as a false-flag operation.
A false-flag operation is an intelligence tactic in which the main actor disguises himself behind the symbol of the enemy, so that the public misunderstands who is the true driving force.(1) Lenin exploited the suffering of workers, peasants, and soldiers with the populist slogan "Land, Bread, Peace."(2) In contrast, contemporary Western capitalism uses narratives of democracy, human rights, climate change, and "rules-based order" to mobilize the global middle class. If Lenin wanted to destroy capitalism, the United States is waging a revolution to defend it.(3)
Western capitalism no longer relies on weaponry, but rather on financial power, technology, media, and NGOs.(4) Through the networks of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the IMF, the World Bank, and multilateral institutions, they drive soft revolutions that effectively destabilize developing countries.(5) In the philosophy of intelligence, this is a form of transformation strategy: the Bolshevik-style hard revolution has been replaced by a soft revolution that is idealistic in appearance but hegemonic in nature.
Indonesia, during the "Dark August Demonstration of 2025," became one of the latest test labs for this operation. The mass actions, portrayed as popular protests, exhibited patterns of external funding, digital orchestration, and international media framing.(6) This pattern demonstrates the involvement of transnational capital seeking to undermine the legitimacy of nationalism and pave the way for global economic penetration. According to an investigative report by the International Crisis Group (2025), there is a pattern of digital orchestration through the use of bots, micro-influencers, and cross-border social media campaigns.(18) Limited intelligence reports also indicate the role of global think tanks in providing nonviolent resistance training to young activists in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, following the pattern of an "Arab Spring 2.0."(19)
Conditions in Nepal reinforce this analysis. The West attempted to position Balendra Shah (the Mayor of Kathmandu) as a pro-global capitalist figure after the riots.(7) He was groomed to be a transitional figure who could ensure Nepal would be more open to the penetration of Western capitalism.(2) However, this operation failed due to Indian counterintelligence.(8) Instead of Balendra, Sushila Karki rose to become interim Prime Minister, thanks to the support of the Indian intelligence network.(9),(21) Although the West failed to install its preferred candidate, they succeeded in shaking Nepal's political legitimacy. The assistance of Indian intelligence was crucial for Nepal's national stability, even though they are still in the process of struggling alongside the Nepalese people themselves.
This comparison demonstrates a sharp contrast: Lenin destroyed capitalism with a proletarian revolution,(10) while the United States rescues capitalism through soft revolutions. Lenin built the Soviet Union and the Cheka,(11) while the US has strengthened NATO, the WTO, the IMF, and the SWIFT system that controls global financial flows.(12) Lenin shouted "Land, Bread, Peace," while the West pushes slogans like "Democracy vs. Authoritarianism," "Climate Justice," and "Inclusive Growth."
From the perspective of Intelligence Philosophy, such operations are not merely domestic political turmoil, but part of a global strategy. False-flag operations by Western capitalism are conducted under the guise of the public as a cover to perpetuate the interests of transnational capital.(13) A Freedom House report (2024) confirmed that more than 80 developing countries have experienced a decline in stability due to non-military foreign intervention.(16) Meanwhile, the World Bank (2023) recorded a 40% increase in transnational financial flows directed to climate justice and human rights issues, which often serve as a medium for political mobilization.(17) Thus, developing nations, especially those in Southeast Asia, need to understand that what appear to be social protests or moral movements are often part of global intelligence operations.
The history of Lenin shows us that ideology can drive revolutions to change the status quo.(14) Contemporary history shows that Western capitalism uses a similar method, but with the aim of maintaining hegemony.(15) Indonesia and Nepal are clear examples of how their strategy is at work in the 21st century.
In conclusion, while Lenin fought to destroy capitalism for a classless society, the United States is leading a fake revolution to preserve capitalism in a new guise. "Proletarian False Flag" operations are a geopolitical reality that must be addressed, so that Southeast Asian nations do not get stuck in a global game that hides behind a mask of representing marginalized people.
Footnotes:
1. John Golson, False Flags: Disinformation and the Global Struggle for Power (New York: Routledge, 2021), 44.
2. Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Russian Revolution (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 58.
3. G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011), 24.
4. William I. Robinson, A Theory of Global Capitalism (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004), 89.
5. Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), 82.
6. Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher, Closing Space: Democracy and Human Rights Support Under Fire (Carnegie Endowment, 2014), 73.
7. Media reports and political analysis of Nepal unrest,
8. Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017), 212.
9. Reports on Sushila Karki’s interim leadership supported by Indian intelligence, 2025.
10. Robert Service, Lenin: A Biography (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000), 119.
11. Vladimir I. Lenin, Collected Works, Vol. 25 (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1964), 172.
12. Joseph S. Nye, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021), 188.
13. Peter Dale Scott, American War Machine (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018), 9.
14. Robert C. Tucker, The Marx-Engels Reader (New York: Norton, 1975), 305.
15. Nancy Fraser, The Old Is Dying and the New Cannot Be Born (London: Verso, 2019), 21.
16. Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024 Report (Washington, DC: Freedom House, 2024).
17. World Bank, Global Development Report 2023: Civil Society and Transnational Finance (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023), 144.
18. International Crisis Group, Indonesia: Anatomy of the August Protests (Jakarta/Brussels: ICG Report, 2025).
19. Gene Sharp, From Dictatorship to Democracy (Boston: Albert Einstein Institution, 2012).
20. Profile of Balendra Shah, Kathmandu Post, June 2025.
21. “Sushila Karki Appointed Interim Prime Minister,” The Himalayan Times, August 2025.
