Dr Brigadier General Khalid Okasya
Director General of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies
The report following the US military operation against the Houthi Ansarullah militia in Yemen has not detected any significant Iranian involvement, such as support for one of its most important proxies in the region. Beyond that, even Iranian media support is largely absent. The picture seems to suggest that there is some kind of under-the-table consensus that the US military operation is continuing to limit the capabilities of the Houthi militia in a way that will ultimately eliminate its ability to threaten international navigation in the Red Sea. As the terms of the latest US-Iran negotiations took place about a month before the first meeting in Muscat, the capital of Oman.
Surprisingly, the preparation of the entire negotiation terms did not mention what was happening in Yemen, as if it were something far removed from the discussion of the negotiations. Although the truth is known to everyone, and especially to both parties in the negotiation process, that this is not the case. So it seems that there is a tacit consensus that the Yemeni Houthis will have to be content with the capabilities trained by Iran over the past years, and will have to face their fate alone in the face of the US campaign to weaken its power that threatens international waters for so long. Amid this collective silence, we can conclude to what extent the US will not go beyond simply eliminating the threat to its maritime activities, without achieving a total elimination of the Yemeni situation as a whole.
This idea is not yet mature, which could involve its political and security dilemmas, which require a more comprehensive path and go beyond the issue of maritime security. But, whatever happens, getting Iran off the hook is still a step forward.
This is a view that is somewhat closely related to the situation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Although the arrangements regarding it are fundamentally different from the Yemeni Houthis, given the immediate geographical proximity of Israel. The latter is more deeply involved in the Lebanese equation, as the Israeli army still has its troops stationed in southern Lebanon in 5 (five) military post areas in an area whose fate has not yet been agreed upon.
Overall, the mapping of the interventions reveals that the Yemeni situation is entirely in the hands of the US, with Israel’s presence limited to a proxy capacity and the US allowing it to exchange intelligence with it regarding military operations there. The situation is reversed between the US and Lebanon on the Lebanese front.
However, it is clear that Iran has taken concrete and effective steps before approaching the Sultanate of Oman. Iran considers it an acceptable bargaining chip in the context of showing goodwill and building the trust it needs to give to the administration of US President Donald Trump 2.0.
The Italian capital, Rome, hosted the second round of high-level negotiations between the US and Iranian delegations on Iran’s nuclear program, amid cautious optimism that a diplomatic solution could be reached. However, subsequent joint statements and positions have shown that the issue appears to have shifted from mere caution to a broader area of consensus in two rounds separated by a week, with a third round expected to take place within hours.
The Sultanate of Oman, which seems to have the necessary influence, has returned with renewed vigor to play the role of mediator between the US delegation, led by the US Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in Muscat, the capital of Oman, and at the Sultanate of Oman's embassy in Rome, the capital of Italy.
Comments from the US President Donald Trump's administration expressed satisfaction and optimism, noting as very good progress and their agreement to meet for the third time, soon. The negotiations in Rome, the capital of Italy, lasted for 4 (four) hours with direct and indirect negotiations.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, on the other hand, that these negotiations were more than positive, as there was a better agreement and understanding on some of the principles and goals adopted in the Rome negotiations. This is a major and real breakthrough after only 2 (two) previous negotiations, each of which lasted for hours!
Iran views the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), between Iran and world powers, including the US, as a lesson learned, but still inadequate at this stage. Iran also insists that its right to enrich uranium remains, but this time it entered the negotiations prepared to offer greater concessions in return for sanctions relief to ease the pressure on its badly damaged economy.
This consideration has become a priority within Iran, to the point that Iranian negotiators have even teased the US by going so far as to talk about the possibility of opening the door to future US investment in areas of key strategic importance to the Iranian state, such as energy projects (oil and gas), and the field of technological modernization for many entities and activities that have been severely affected by sanctions over the years. This Iran has been experiencing backwardness and failure, and extensive US involvement in a broad modernization operation could greatly benefit both parties in the future. Here, Iran is talking about a long-term strategic contract that will not only advance its institutions qualitatively, but also open this door at this advanced stage of negotiations will practically give the negotiators and the US government a completely new horizon for the anticipated relations between the US and Iran. Not to mention the expected benefits that will automatically determine the compass of the negotiating delegation, and behind it the government, which knows very well how to make a successful deal.
President Trump commented on his visit to Rome a few days ago by saying that he does not expect an imminent military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, and he reiterated for the second time that he personally discourages Israel from carrying out such a military action:
"I am not in a hurry to do it, because I believe that Iran has the opportunity to become a great country and live happily."
This is the first choice of US President Donald Trump, and he has expressed his strong desire to see it. Before visiting Rome, the head of the US delegation, Witkoff, met secretly in Paris with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who is the closest confidant of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Director of the Israeli Foreign Intelligence Service Mossad David Barnea. Witkoff conveyed President Trump's assurances that the US is on the right track, along with a firm demand that Israel not sabotage the negotiation process in any way.
