By A.M. Hendropriyono
Professor of the State Intelligence College (STIN)
Professor Emiritus of the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia
Professor of the Military Law College (STHN)
SENAYANPOST - With the latest developments in the world war of economics, trade and finance, I would like to convey the following Strategic Situation Estimate:
In the not-too-distant future, three months at most, the United States will stop the tariff war of United States President Donald Trump. There is only one option for Trump, namely to give in honorably or be overthrown by the American people themselves. At present, the disagreement between President Trump and his main supporter Elon Musk is increasingly leading to division.
When Trump appointed Elon Musk to the cabinet, Tesla shares skyrocketed, although only briefly. Due to negative developments in the situation in the United States, Tesla shares will continue to fall for an unpredictable duration. More people have the same understanding as Elon Musk, whose supply of blade batteries, electronic platform 3.0, 60% of which come from China, has been stopped by BYD.
China's reciprocal maneuver of imposing a 125% tariff and canceling imports of USD640 billion has made US capitalists furious. They want to immediately stop Trump, who is digging himself into a hole.
On the other hand, as markets are quiet in Shanghai, Hong Kong and other places, Chinese President Xi Jin Ping continues to remind his people that the war will be won by those who can endure the most suffering.
The Chinese nation, he said, is a calm ocean that is often hit by storms that will surely pass. Meanwhile, the mass media and national and local TV stations are busy broadcasting various stories about the lives of the Chinese people in the past who were poor and full of concern, which made China as powerful as it is today. For this reason, President Xi Jin Ping is igniting the spirit of his people, namely that China is ready for any war against anyone who will attack China.
In this world economic war, President Prabowo's maneuver to strive for an equal bilateral balance of trade with the US has pleased the Trump administration. This maneuver is a brilliant strategy for mobilizing Indonesia, to show that we still adhere to the principle of a free and active foreign policy even though it is aimed at the national interests of the Indonesian nation.
The policy of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to expedite the development of Batam in the Riau Islands, to increase the competitiveness of the Free Trade and Free Port Areas, makes it possible for China to push aside Trump's tariff barricade towards the relocation of its companies here.
Thus, Indonesia will benefit from receiving spill-over from China's victory that has been forged in the fire of competition, becoming charcoal. On the other hand, Indonesia will not become an ashtray for the ashes of Trump's defeat. All forms of war will only make the winner become charcoal and the loser become ashes.
We will not accept China's charcoal, because investment in Batam will revive the economic strength of other parts of Indonesia and even Southeast Asia.
Thus ends this strategic situation estimate for us. Keep up the fight!